67 replies to this topic

[brewin]

scaramonga, on Mar 5 2008, 01:34 AM, said:

Seems as if Clinton's back in the race after taking Ohio and looking good to take Texas ATM.

Any thoughts?

The Democratic nomination process is screwed up. No winner-take-all states, "super-delegates", and the "Texas Two-Step." It couldn't be more confusing. It's just a joke and it's probably going to give McCain the Presidency.

[banj0]

(Full disclosure---I'm an Obama supporter for the Dems. ticket. Fuller disclosure---I love math and logic.)

There is no way that Clinton can win the nomination unless the Dems go to a brokered convention and Hillary outperforms behind closed doors.

Neither Texas nor Ohio are Winner-Take-All States and because Obama won the Texas Caucus which gives him 1/3rd of the Texas Delegates he will actually have increased his lead in the delegate count. Stranger still, even though Hillary won the popular vote in Ohio, she only picks up about 4 more delegates than Obama in that state because Ohio weighs Congressional Districts when allocating pledged delegates. So his lead actually increased today despite losing the majority vote in both states. R.I. and Vermont are so small that they just don't figure into the math.

In other words, Hillary will win the Ohio popular vote by 12% or so but will only win about 4 more pledged delegates from Obama because his votes in more populous districts far-outweighed Hillary's in the rural areas. In Texas, she won by 51%-49% which is basically a wash when it comes to pledged delegates but since Obama won the Caucuses, he "won" Texas.

Tomorrow morning, Obama will have increased his lead. But we will all have to hear how Hillary "won the night" and has "regained momentum."

In order for Hillary to catch Obama's delegate count, she will have to win every last primary/caucus by 13%. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Including Wyoming and Mississippi where Obama will win by at least 7 points according to the most conservative of polls. So, unless Clinton wins by 13% in every last state and in Puerto Rico, the Democratic Convention will convene with her having less pledged delegates.

Even if her "majority" of SuperDelegates (up by 46 out of 500 or so) holds up, she will still lose the nomination and that includes the prediction that she will win Pennsylvania by 10%. She lost, she knows she lost, and now seems hell-bent on getting to the convention and changing the minds of the super-delegates that are currently for Obama or seating the BS delegates from Michigan and Florida. Since Obama wasn't even on the ballot in those 2 states, seating those delegates would end up with Hillary winning the delegate count 1844 to 1812. And she wins the nom.

As Brewin said, a brokered convention and the in-fighting that results means that McCain has all but won the presidency. No matter what happens from here on out, with neither Dem. conceding, you can pretty much bet that McCain will be our next president.

Edited by banj0, 05 March 2008 - 08:37 AM.

[TheBearLT]

banj0, on Mar 5 2008, 10:19 AM, said:

....will actually have increased his lead in the delegate count. Stranger still, even though Hillary won the popular vote in Ohio, she only picks up about 4 more delegates than Obama in that state because Ohio weighs Congre...

+1 Totally agree with you Banj0.


Btw, the votes could be always.... "RECOUNTED"
you gettin' the point

[Camaro]

I got to say all this is pure BS, I think there should be a ban on all that crap, anyone that wants to run for pres just does so and in "NOVEMBER" all votes are counted. Maybe thats naive thinking on my part but what is the reason for all this complexity, so that people do not know what is really going on?

[hog]

Camaro, on Mar 5 2008, 01:49 PM, said:

...what is the reason for all this complexity, so that people do not know what is really going on?

This question answers itself!

I don't understand anything in all those procedures. I try to understand, I read the newspapers and everything, but this just doesn't make any sense to me. Super Delegates? Wtf!? Caucus, primary, whatever. Each state seems to be working differently from one another. Why don't everybody vote for the leader they want and the one with the most votes wins? Oh I know... (see quote)

[hog]

Oh and I consider myself quite informed and "intelligent" and I don't understand it. That doesn't really matter since I live in Québec, but I think it's just impossible that EVERYONE who votes understands the process and what his/her vote means. Hell, not everyone... I wouldn't even be surprised to learn that half of the electors don't understand it.

[banj0]

It is really crazy. As Will Rogers once said, "I don't belong to an organized political party - I'm a Democrat." The Republicans have a much better system for picking their nominee. And the dems wonder why they lose so often.

Some updates since last night----CNN now has it in total delegates Obama 1451, Clinton 1365. Here's Chuck Todd from last night (before the projections) shedding some light on what the numbers mean.

[bluerip]

It's a dog and pony show. They gotta make it look good so that sheeple will think its a real race.

[brewin]

***Spoiler Alert***

[TheBearLT]

Haha, I thought that when that guy click on vote button.. BSOD occurred..

[banj0]

hahahaha---if I posted my personal thoughts on diebold, I'd get kicked for profanity. For some reason, Talker's siggy comes to mind.

post edited---admittedly, too long.

Edited by banj0, 06 March 2008 - 10:25 AM.

[TheBearLT]

banj0, on Mar 6 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

....chnically. If you acknowledge that a lot of the Supers are politicians in their own right, and, as such, could face a political backlash by not going for candidate (x) that won the majority, you can see that the Supers will usually go with the...

Dang it Banj, you made me totally sweaty by reading this.. too much text for me..

Cool post.. thanks for your explanations

[Camaro]

I am glad of your explanation, however my original post still stands, its seems like alot of BS.

[bluerip]

and this is a big reason that it is BS...
check it out,
http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/bo...1954/71906.html